Intelligence and Nuclear Non-Proliferation Programs: The Achilles Heel

Kristen Lau (University of Oxford) and I have a paper accepted for publication in Intelligence and National SecurityKristen was my graduate student at the University of Washington and is now pursuing a doctoral degree at Oxford. We began studying information management failures associated with nuclear non-proliferation efforts in 2009. We presented an early version of the paper at  the Centre for Science and Security Studies (CSSS) at King’s College London.

Abstract: Intelligence is a critical component for all counter-proliferation activities.  It allows us to assess and determine what makes up the current threat environment in terms of the proliferation of nuclear weapons and technology. The intelligence process as it relates to estimating nuclear capabilities or intentions is wrought with many challenges and complications. The denial and deception techniques employed by states running covert weapons programs and the dual-use nature of many weapons components create many difficulties for intelligence organizations. Additionally, illicit transnational networks obscure the situation further by serving as a source, for both nation states and non-state actors, for acquiring dual-use commodities and technologies. These challenges can lead to the miscalculation of a state’s capabilities or intentions. This paper presents a comparative analysis of three cases of nuclear proliferation: India’s 1998 nuclear tests, the exposure of the AQ Khan network, and Iran’s nuclear program. We examine the lessons learned and propose recommendations for future counter proliferation policy and strategy. 

You might find our other paper of interest. It was published in the International Journal of Public Administration.

Reversing the Brain Drain: Global Knowledge Flows

Finally, we are beginning to see more widespread acknowledgement of the reverse brain drain! For the last few years, I have counseled my graduate students to seek opportunities outside the US. Employment prospects outside the US continue to be, on average, more interesting, challenging, and attractive. Graduate students who want to succeed globally need to take the time to expand their global horizons, seek out cultural immersion experiences, and learn foreign languages. Having traveled to India twice in the last three years, I continue to be amazed by the rate of economic growth and the development of the entreprenueiral spirit. Innovators are flocking to India for the simple reason that you have a highly-skilled knowlege workforce that can be deployed on a global stage. One must acknowledge that India has challenges, but these challenges, in my opinion, will get addressed in due time.

P.S. A few years back, Roberto Evaristo and I wrote a paper on global knowledge management strategies. The paper documented the three most dominant strategies employed by organizations to foster knowledge flows across their global operations. It may be time to revise the paper!