Towards Evidence-Driven Policy Design: Complex Adaptive Systems and Computational Modeling

Along with my doctoral student, Yuan Lin, I have co-authored an article that describes how we might move towards evidence-driven policy design. This article draws from the keynote that I have at the 2010 Computational Social Science Society Conference.

Efforts to design public policies for social systems tend to confront highly complex conditions which have a large number of potentially relevant factors to be considered and rapidly changing conditions where continuous adaptation delays or obscures the effect of policies. Given unresolvable uncertainty in policy outcomes, the optimal solution is difficult, if ever possible, to nail down. It is more reasonable to choose a solution that is robust to as many future scenarios that might ensue from the decision. Arriving at such a solution requires policy makers to actively explore and exploit rich information to support their decision making in a cost-efficient, yet rigorous manner. We name this new working style as evidence-driven policy design and outline the characteristics of favorable evidence. We then argue that computational modeling is a potential tool for implementing evidence-driven policy design. It helps the study and design of solutions by simulating various environments, interventions, and the processes in which certain outcomes emerge from the decisions of policy makers. It allows policy makers to observe both the intended and, equally important, unintended consequences of policy alternatives. It also facilitates communication and consensus-building among policy makers and diverse stakeholders.

Deploying IT for Organizational Innovation: Lessons from Case Studies

Along with several colleagues, Jaka Lindic (University of Ljubljana), Peter Baloh (BISOL, d.o.o), and Vincent Ribière (The Institute for Knowledge and Innovation (IKI-SEA), Bangkok University), I co-authored a paper for the International Journal of Information Management.

Organizations must innovate if they are to survive in today’s fiercely competitive marketplace. In this paper, we explore how leading organizations are using emerging technologies to enable novel forms of ideation that can radically increase the sheer volume of ideas they explore. In addition, we outline how organizations use technologies to cost effectively manage this increased volume of ideas by optimizing generation, mobilization, advocacy and screening, experimentation, commercialization, and even the diffusion and implementation of ideas. Critical to this is the management of knowledge during the innovation process.

Lindic, J., Baloh, P., Ribière, V.M., and Desouza, K.C. “Deploying Information Technologies for Organizational Innovation: Lessons from Case Studies,” International Journal of Information Management, Forthcoming.

What kind of a management consultant are you?

On a fairly regular basis, I am asked, “What kind of a consultant are you, Kevin?” I admit that my typical response has been to take the easy road by responding, “It depends.” For the last several weeks, I have begun to think more creatively on the nature, type, and roles of management consultants in organizations. I have served in various capacities as a consultant to a myriad of organizations; reflecting on what I do in the various situations can only help me get better. During these reflections, I have come to the realization that there are archetypes of management consultants.

Lawyers: Management consultants often are called in to act as lawyers. These engagements occur when an organization is need of specialized, strategic, decision-making advice. When done correctly, the consultants are called in to help an organization evaluate strategic options before they choose a major course of action. When done incorrectly, consultants are called in to help mitigate damage from actions, or even to address public relations disasters.

Engineers: One of the most popular role for management consultants is that of an ‘engineers.’ Most graduates take on this position as their first job after completion of their  studies. In this role, the consultant helps an organization to ‘build’ something, most commonly an information technology solution or a human resource process. The management consultant builds a new organizational artifact and helps an organization make it a part of its operational fabric.

Designers:  Consultants who act as designers, or architects, oversee the work of engineers who might later build something. Designers are involved in the process of architecting organizational re-designs, system integrations, and even process improvement projects. The major element that differentiates designers from engineers is that designers need to have broad knowledge about the business and industry in which the organization operates. Engineers, on the other hand, have deeper knowledge about their particular too lsets.

Doctors: There are management consultants who are called upon to work as doctors. They deal with specific organizational problems, when management knows that either 1) the organization needs a routine check-up, or 2) the organization is suffering from an ailment and needs a medication (fix) to remedy the situation. Management consultants that work as doctors have deep knowledge within specific domains and are often experts in these spaces. Doctor-like management consultants are common for issues such as employee morale boosting, global innovation team management, or assisting in managing organizational change programs.

Artists: The most eclectic of management consultants function as artists. These individuals bring innovation into an organization. They bring new ideas that the organization did not know were there and are meant to stimulate fresh thinking and reflection. Like Picasso or van Gogh, artists rarely come up with creations to meet specific needs of an organization. It is more common for organizations to recognize the value of their work and then bring their ideas into the organization. Like hanging a painting on the wall, the ideas are meant to stimulate the organization to fresh and invigorated thinking.

Coaches: Management consultants who have a track record of working with senior executives and organizational leaders are often called upon to take on the role of coach. This also happens to be my favorite role as a consultant.  In this role, the coach serves as a confidant and mentor to an executive. Executives use their coach to help them improve their skills (from building effective business plans to creating effective teams).  In turn, the coach puts executives through a series of "exercises" to train them on how to become effective leaders.

How do you feel about this classification scheme? Have I missed any other types of consultants? What kind of management consultant do you want to be and why?

Letter to the Editor in November Issue of Wine Spectator

My friends and colleagues know that I love wine. I love to drink, collect, learn about, and share wine. For the last few months I have been pondering what it might be like to write about wine. So, as an experiment, I sent a letter to the Editors of Wine Spectator. To my surprise, the Editors decided to publish the letter in the November 30th issue of the magazine. Below, I provide the letter that was published for your reading pleasure. I also include a small part, shown in italics below, that was omitted from the published version.

What Not to Do

I enjoyed reading Matt Kramer’s article “The Biggest Mistakes” (Oct. 15).  I agree with Kramer on the three points he raises. However, I would like to offer the following three as my own perceptions of the biggest mistakes people make when choosing wine.

First: volume instead of variety. I have been collecting wine for over 12 years. A lot of my friends ask me if I stock up on wines that I like. While, the obvious answer is yes, I do take great care to keep a diverse collection. Rookies make the mistake of loving one particular kind of wine (e.g. Cabs or wines from Italy) and then blinding themselves to other regions and varietals. My suggestion: for every five bottles of wines that you buy from places that you know, try one bottle from an unknown region.

Second mistake: not trusting your own nose. To a large degree, enjoying wine is a personal experience. Yes, you can share this experience with friends who love wine, but in the final analysis, your taste and preference is what makes the wine you drink enjoyable or not. Rookies get carried away by name brands and jump too often on bandwagons, instead of taking time to understand the kind of wines they like (and do not like). [Omitted: My suggestion: when you enjoy a good bottle of wine, take the time to research the wine, learn about how it was made, its composition and approach, and what other wines are similar for you to try.]

Third mistake: not asking enough question. Too often, [people] who are just beginning to experience wines in a serious manner feel intimated about asking questions of wine makers or merchants, or even of sommeliers. Learning about wine is a lifelong quest. One very reliable channel for easily digestible information on wine is talking with experts. Most wine enthusiast and experts love to share their knowledge and opinions on wines, and they yearn for the opportunities to converse with people about wine. So do them a favor and engage them in a conversation. You will not regret it.

Want to Learn How to Manage Underground Resistance in Organizations?

Nicholas (Nick) Sweers, a former graduate student of mine at the University of Washington Information School, and I have published a case study in the Journal of Business Strategy that illustrates the challenges of managing underground resistance. This hypothetical case study takes place at a mid-sized consulting firm specializing in innovative web development solutions. An underground resistance movement surfaces in the final stages of an organizational restructuring effort, threatening the final implementation phase. The change manager, a young senior partner at the firm, is now faced with the reality that his plan may fail. The psychological underpinnings of the movement, rooted in the natural human tendency to resist change, provide a framework for examining the inherent difficulty of successful change management.

The article can be accessed here: [LINK]

Sweers, N.D. and Desouza, K.C. “Shh!  It’s Vive La Résistance…,” Journal of Business Strategy, 31 (6), 2010, 12-21.

Winning the Business Case for Knowledge Management

If you have ever struggled to write a business case for a knowledge management effort, I encourage you to read my recently published article in Business Information Review. Without a sound business case, securing resources for knowledge management is difficult. When organizations do not devote the necessary resources to knowledge management efforts, it is often not due to a lack of resources, but rather because managers have not made an appealing business case. In this article, I outline guidelines on how to tie knowledge management efforts to an organization’s goals, objectives and key performance indicators.

To access the article, please click here [LINK]

The Wayne Rooney and Sir Alex Saga Continues…

For those interested in keeping up with saga, you can see Sir Alex’s respone to the Rooney speculations this morning. Sir Alex confirmed that Rooney would like to leave, but is keeping the door open for him to stay with the club. What do you think the two of them should do?  Can this relationship be saved? Can we design new metrics, besides the traditional ones (e.g. number of goals scored, number of red cards received, etc.), to evaluate a player’s contribution to a team? What lessons can we learn about the role that incentives play in motivating performance and behavior, especially in the case of superstars?

The Wayne Rooney and Sir Alex Saga: What do we Learn about Managing Superstars?

I am a footballer first and foremost, and then, an entrepreneur, academic, or whatever else you may categorize me as. Growing up, I had the privilege of playing on some good teams and had aspirations to be a great footballer (for my American readers, I am not referring to American Football, but the rather what you call Soccer). My favorite team has always been Manchester United Football Club (MUFC), and my favorite coaches have always been Sir Alex Ferguson and Jose Mourinho. The recent performance by MUFC has been far from stellar. The team has lost points on matches that they should have won, and they have allowed leads to slip by, most recently against West Bromwich Albion. One of the reasons for this has been the precarious performance of their star performer, Wayne Rooney. Wayne Rooney, if you believe the press reports, has fallen out with his manager, Sir Alex Ferguson. Sir Alex had chosen to rest his superstar for several games, claiming that his player needed time to recover from an ankle injury that he sustained last season. Soon thereafter, after national team duty with England, Rooney spoke to the press and contradicted his manager. He claimed that nothing was wrong with his ankle. Today, speculation abounds that Rooney might be ready to part ways with MUFC!

I am fascinated by these developments for several reasons, and what is surprising, even to me, is that I am excited from the perspective of organizational behavior and management, rather than as a raging Red Devil. Dealing with superstars is never an easy proposition for any manager. As one colleague put it, “I love my superstars as much as I hate managing them!” Last season, Rooney carried MUFC, scoring 34 goals, a sizable proportion of which kept MUFC in the premier league title race. However, since sustaining an injury in a match against FC Bayern Munich in the Champions League, he has never really played his best. He had an awful World Cup showing, and has been insignificant for most of the season. So, what is Sir Alex to do?

In discussing this situation with several executives, I wanted to share some food for thought. First, we need to understand that all employees will have ups and downs. Rooney is now in a slump and his performance has suffered. Sir Alex may have had the right intention in benching him (i.e. giving him a break); however, maybe a better strategy would have been to let him to play. As one executive remarked to me, “the most difficult thing for superstars is to deal with lows…the only way out is to keep at it, and then witness the positive trajectory.”

Second, Sir Alex needs to take a step back and allow the team to manage Rooney. Sir Alex is a beast of manager (now reaching 70); he is probably going to go down in history as the most decorated football manager. Rooney, on the other hand, is a kid (only 24 years old). Sir Alex needs to have a conversation with Rooney to reassure him that he is committed to seeing him blossom at MUFC. Then, he needs to enlist the support of his senior players, most notably Ryan Giggs, who is MUFC and Premier League’s most decorated player, in a coaching role. Giggs, who is closing in 40, is at the tail-end of his career and has expressed an interest in coaching. I suggest that Sir Alex mentor Giggs in the art of coaching, by giving him the ‘Rooney Project.’ No matter how good a manager that he is, innovative and star players, trust other players who they have seen deliver. They trust peers who have expertise and the necessary experience. Sir Alex has at his disposal ‘the most decorated player’ in the Premier League, who could help Rooney get out of the slump. Gigg’s playing days are numbered, but he still has a lot to contribute to the game of football, and young lads still look up to him as a role-model.

Third, in dealing with Rooney, especially his behavior on and off the pitch, Sir Alex needs to carefully consider the message that his actions will send to other players. Sir Alex has been known to have a zero-tolerance policy towards player dissent (e.g. past star players, like David Beckham and Ruud van Nistelrooy, were shown the exit door for not abiding by their manager’s request or dissenting). On a personal level, I think Sir Alex is right to discipline players who are selfish and do not put the club before their own interests; however, in Rooney’s case, a small exception can be made, considering that he carried the club on his shoulders the previous season. Sir Alex needs to take all of this into account in making any determinations on how to proceed. One way to address this is best captured by a colleague, “superstars are individuals, and at the end, they still need a team to perform…so, if the superstar is delivering constantly that means the rest of the team is not! Eventually, the team needs to give the superstar a break and deliver on their own.” Sir Alex needs to give Rooney a break, but establish clear parameters around his behavior and professional conduct. In addition, the rest of the team needs to be scolded and shamed into increasing their level of performance so that they are a ‘team’ and not a ‘one man show.’

What do you think Sir Alex should do?

The Zombie Workplace Survival Guide: HBR Blog

My first post on the Harvard Business Review site when live today! The post was written in collaboration with H. James Wilson and is titled, The Zombie Workplace Survival Guide. The post provides a  few pointers to get your employees to innovate at their best. We would love to hear your comments on the ideas presented.

Overcommitted: Sam Houston gets a Nice Suggestion…The Story Continues

Thanks for all the comments and feedback on the story of Sam Houston. Taking a suggestion from a reader, I am extending the story…Let me know what you think

Sam returns from his meeting feeling frustrated. The company that he works for, PubIT, is being sued by a major competitor for intellectual property infractions and the product in question is one that was developed under Sam’s watch. Sam has just been assigned another ‘important’ task - do an internal audit to see where certain pieces of the code came from  (Damn, Open Source Gurus, he thinks to himself!)...he needs to figure out if there is any merit to the lawsuit. Sam summons his assistant to his office and asks, “Julie, do you need a caffeine fix?” From years of working together, Julie had learned to read Sam’s mood, no matter how well he tried to mask it.  She knew immediately that something was not right. “Sure, Boss. Do you want me to get you the usual?” Sam thinks for a minute, then gets up from his chair, “No, let’s walk down together.”

While standing in line waiting to order their drinks, Julie decides to break the silence. “Sam, I have worked with you for over five years, but I have never seen you so stressed. Maybe I can help? I know that I can take on more... just tell me what needs to be done!” Sam smiles and responds with a question, “How about a Venti, rather than your usual, Tall?”

With coffees in hand, they settle into the leather chairs of the coffee shop.  “That Venti is going to cost you Julie," Sam remarks in jest.  Then more seriously, he adds, “I need to know your secret. I keep giving you things to do but you remain calm and get all of them done as needed. How do you do this?” Julie pauses, looking down at the mug in her hands. It is her favorite secretary gift that Sam has given her over the years. It is a simple white cup decorated with the message ‘Keep Calm and Carry On’. Julie points to it, reminding Sam of what he had told her a few years before, “Sam, remember the long conversation we had at Finn MacCools (a neighborhood pub, or as everyone knew it - Sam’s Irish Office!), you gave me the history lesson about how the British Government’s Ministry of Information printed out posters with these words, Keep Calm and Carry On, to help its citizenry deal with the chaos of World War II.”

Sam nods his head. “I remember. A powerful message but much harder to put into practice!  What is your secret? How do you dodge all the bombs I send your way, so to speak?  I keep throwing so much your way!” Julie knows her boss is a ‘solutions guy' who likes to solve problems once he becomes aware of them. She suggests, “Sam, here is one technique that works well for me. I keep a list of the things you ask me to do. Next to each item, I answer the following three questions: 1) How important is it?  2) Who is the customer or ultimate stakeholder that I am going to impact with the task? and 3) What is the deadline for the task?  During our weekly meeting, I go over the items on the list, then listen to all the new things that you want done. Afterwards, I go back to my desk and reprioritize the list.  As needed, I get more information from you, including 1) I ask you what things I can drop from the list given the developments of the week, 2) If you need me to take on new tasks, I ask you to change the current deadlines for selected tasks so as to make time and energy available for me to work on the new assignments, and 3) Even though you do not like it, I keep reminding you of tasks that are vitally important (i.e. strategic) on my list that are my major priorities; when I do this, you feel reassured and actually begin to give me more items that can be cut out from my list.”

Processing this information, Sam remarks “So, you developed a system to keep your boss’s demands in check.” Julie giggles, “Sam, if I don't, who will?”  It's another good question.  Taking another sip of coffee, Sam makes a decision to try out Julie’s system. The two of them head back to Sam’s office. Sam proceeds to wipe off his whiteboard, then requests Julie to begin writing down his current tasks, noting for each 1) who the stakeholder he wants to impact is or who is responsible for the task, 2) what the deadline is and 3) the impact (strategic, tactical, or operational) to the organization and to Sam’s career. He pleads with Julie, “Remind me for the next few weeks-- before I take on another task, to reprioritize this list myself.  When people ask me to do something, remind me to walk them over to this whiteboard, just where we are now.  I need to ask them if they are willing to help me with one of the current tasks on my list while I take on something for them. Or, if the person has power to reprioritize my list, I need to ask him or her to grant me permission to drop a task or change a deadline.”

Sam's face looks far more relaxed as he gazes at the whiteboard and imagines how he will use it to manage his upcoming commitments and projects. Something about having the tasks organized boldly in black and white makes him feel mentally prepared to take on the challenges of the day. He gives Julie a thumbs-up and tells her, “Julie, the Venti upgrade was my best investment for the last month.  Thank you!”

P.S.  How successful do you think Sam will be in using this new system? Do you see any issues that Sam will face as he tries to make public his list of commitments? Will Sam be able to convince his stakeholders to reprioritize commitments as new developments and emergencies surface?